THE UNITED Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revealed that world trade is on track to reach a record US$33 trillion in 2024, according to the body’s latest Global Trade Update.
UNCTAD said the US$1 trillion increase, reflecting a 3.3% annual growth, highlights resilience in global trade despite persistent challenges.
Robust growth in services trade, up 7% for the year, accounted for half of the expansion, while goods trade rose 2% while remaining below its 2022 peak.
Despite the record-breaking projection, UNCTAD says risks of expanded trade wars and ongoing geopolitical challenges cast uncertainty over the outlook for 2025.
Developing economies, traditionally strong drivers of global trade, faced headwinds in 2024, with imports contracting by 1% and South-South trade falling by the same margin in the third quarter.
In contrast, developed economies led third quarter growth, with stable demand driving a 3% rise in imports and 2% in exports.
Despite these challenges, UNCTAD said opportunities remain for developing economies to capitalise on high-growth sectors.
Information and communication technology (ICT), and apparel trade surged, with increases of 13% and 14%, respectively, in the third quarter 2024.
This growth underscores the potential for diversification and entry into value-added industries, the body said, with stable global growth forecasts and easing inflation also presenting a chance to build resilience in 2025.
While ICT and apparel showed strong momentum, traditional sectors critical to developing economies faced declines.
Energy trade fell 2% for the quarter and 7% for the year, while metals trade contracted by 3% both quarterly and annually. Automotive trade dropped 3% in the third quarter but is expected by UNCTAD to end the year with modest 4% growth.
The organisation urged developing economies to adopt targeted policies that enhance trade diversification, and invest in high-value sectors to mitigate risks.
“[UNCTAD] underscores that trade is a cornerstone of sustainable development. To capitalize on opportunities in 2025, developing economies require coordinated support to navigate uncertainty, reduce dependencies and strengthen global market links,” the body said.
