IATA looks cautiously to 2025 as “Trump agenda unfolds”

THE INTERNATIONAL Air Transport Association has reported further growth in air cargo demand but is looking cautiously to next year as US president-elect Donald Trump threatens America’s largest trading partners with new tariffs.

A 9.8% increase in air cargo demand in October, compared with the same month last year, marks the 15^th month of consecutive growth.

Air cargo capacity increased 5.9% over the same period, largely driven by an 8.5% increase in international belly capacity.

Dedicated freighter capacity increased by 5.6%, the seventh consecutive month of growth with volumes nearing 2021 peak levels.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, but the industry must look to 2025 with some caution.

“The incoming Trump administration’s announced intention to impose significant tariffs on its top trading partners – Canada, China and Mexico – has the potential to upend global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence,” he said.

The president-elect announced last week his plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” on imports from China. Mr Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for 20 January 2025.

“The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds,” Mr Walsh said.

IATA also unpacked several other factors impacting air cargo, such as a 1.6% year-on-year rise industrial production in September while global goods trade increased 2.4% for a sixth consecutive month of growth.

The increase in trade is partly due to businesses stockpiling inventory ahead of potential disruptions, like the US port strike, IATA said.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 13.4% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 9.3% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw 9.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 5.8% year-on-year.

European carriers saw 7.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 3.9% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw 4.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 0.8% year-on-year.

Latin American carriers saw 18.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 5.8% year-on-year.

African airlines saw 1.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the slowest among regions. Capacity increased by 7.7% year-on-year.

And international routes experienced “exceptional traffic levels” for the fifth consecutive month with a 10.3% year-on-year increase in October, according to IATA.

Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.