GLOBAL demand for air-cargo services decreased 7.7% in March (down 8.1% for international operations), compared with the same month last year.
The International Air Transport Association’s data for March 2023 global air cargo markets shows a continued decline against previous year’s demand performance. This trend began in March 2022.
While demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, fell in March 2022 the month’s figures were a slight improvement over the previous February’s performance ( down 9.4%) and half the rate of annual decline seen in January and December (down 16.8% and 15.6% respectively).
In its comments on the numbers, IATA said it is unclear if this is a potentially modest start of an improvement trend or the upside of market volatility.
Irrespective of this, March performance slipped back into negative territory compared with pre-Covid levels (down 8.1%).
Capacity (measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, ACTK) was up 9.9% compared with March 2022. The strong uptick in ACTKs reflects the addition of belly capacity as the passenger side of the business continues to recover.
IATA said even with record low unemployment rates, the global economy continues to decelerate due to a combination of factors such as tightening global financial conditions, high levels of global debt, and supply chain problems including those linked to the war in Ukraine.
Global goods trade decreased by 2.6% in February; this was a faster rate of decline than the previous month of -1%.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said air cargo had a volatile first quarter.
“In March, overall demand slipped back below pre-Covid-19 levels and most of the indicators for the fundamental drivers of air cargo demand are weak or weakening,” he said.
“While the trading environment is tough, there is some good news. Airlines are getting help in managing through the volatility with yields that have remained high and fuel prices that have moderated from exceptionally high levels. Looking ahead, with inflation reducing in G7 countries policy makers are expected to ease economic cooling measures and that would stimulate demand.”
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 7.3% in March 2023 compared with the same month in 2022. This was a slight decrease in performance compared to February (down 5.4%).
The drop in demand suggests that air cargo traffic in the region has not yet stabilised following China’s reopening in January. Available capacity in the region increased by 23.6% compared to March 2022 as more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of the business.
