GLOBAL air cargo demand was tracking at pre-pandemic levels in July this year but still lower than it was 12 months ago, according to the International Air Transport Association.

The latest data from IATA indicates global demand, measured in cargo-tonne kilometres (CTKs) was down 9.7% on figures recorded in July last year (-10.2% for international operations). Demand stood at -3.5% compared to July 2019.

Capacity for July this year was 3.6% above July 2021 levels (+6.8% for international operations) but still 7.8% below July 2019 levels.

In the operating environment, IATA said new export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, decreased in all markets except China, which began a sharp upward trend in June.

The war in Ukraine is also reportedly impairing cargo capacity used to serve Europe, as several airlines based in Russia and Ukraine were key cargo players.

IATA also observed that recovery was continuing in the global goods trade in the second quarter of 2022, and said it expects the additional easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China to further boost recovery in the coming months.

“Air cargo is tracking at near 2019 levels although it has taken a step back compared to the extra-ordinary performance of 2020-2021,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said.

“Volatility resulting from supply chain constraints and evolving economic conditions has seen cargo markets essentially move sideways since April,” he said.

“July data shows us that air cargo continues to hold its own, but as is the case for almost all industries, we’ll need to carefully watch both economic and political developments over the coming months.”

Airlines in the Asia Pacific region reportedly saw air cargo volumes decrease by 9% in July this year compared to the same month in 2021.

IATA said airlines in the region are still being impacted by the conflict in Ukraine, labour shortages and lower levels of trade and manufacturing activity due to Omicron-related restrictions.

The scale of the decrease is said to indicate volatility in volumes, as pent-up demand from the last Omicron-related lockdowns in China should prevent such notable declines in volumes, according to IATA.

Available capacity in the region increased by 2.7% compared to July 2021.

In North America, carriers posted a 5.7% decrease in cargo volumes for July 2022 compared to the same month last year, an improvement over the 13.5% decline reported in June.

The lifting of restrictions in China is expected to boost demand in the coming months. Capacity was up 4.2% compared to July 2021.

European carriers reportedly saw a 17% decrease in cargo volumes in July this year compared to the same month in 2021.

According to IATA, this was the worst performance of all regions for the third month in a row, and attributable to the war in Ukraine.

Labour shortages and lower manufacturing activity in Asia due to Omicron also affected volumes, though capacity increased 0.9% in July 2022 compared to July 2021.

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 10.9% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in July 2022.

IATA said benefits from traffic being redirected to avoid flying over Russia failed to materialise and stagnant cargo volumes to and from Europe impacted the region’s performance.

Capacity was up 4.9% compared to July 2021 in the region.

In Latin America, carriers reported an increase of 9.2% in cargo volumes for July 2022 compared to figures reported in July 2021, marking the strongest performance of all the regions.

Airlines in Latin America have reportedly shown optimism by introducing new services and capacity, and in some cases investing in additional aircraft for air cargo in the coming months.

Capacity in July was up 21.4% compared to the same month in 2021 in the region.

And African airlines saw cargo volumes decrease by 3.5% in July 2022 compared to July 2021.

This was significantly slower than the growth recorded the previous month (5.7%). Capacity was 2.2% below July 2021 levels.