ELECTRICITY’S share in transport will increase from 1% today to 23% in 2050, according to DNV’s latest Transport in Transition report.
Despite oil demand in the transport sector forecast to halve by 2050, the present pace of the transition still falls severely short of the goals of the Paris Agreement, according to the report.
Opportunities to accelerate change through pilot projects and uptake of alternative energy need to be seized as soon as possible, the report argues.
Today, transport of passengers and goods accounts for about a quarter of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, a share that will grow to 30% by 2050.
Road transport leads the way in reducing reliance of fossil fuels, falling from 38 million barrels of oi per day today, to 19 million bpd in 2050, reducing share from 91% to 57%. Conversely, the consumption of oil within aviation will be virtually flat to 2050, with hydrocarbons set to have a 60% share in the sector in the same year.
The report finds that the fuel mix in the maritime sector will change significantly in the coming decades. By 2050, it will likely transition from being almost entirely oil-based to an energy mix comprising of 50% low and zero-carbon fuels, 19% natural gas and 18% biomass. Electricity will obtain only a 4% share, from short sea shipping and port stays for larger vessels.
DNV group president and CEO Remi Eriksen said the report highlights the challenges facing the industry and where further policies and investments are urgently needed to fast-track decarbonisation in the transport sector.
“There is a pressing need for reliable non-fossil fuels to support emission reductions, particularly in the maritime and aviation sectors,” he said.
“It is essential that policy makers accelerate efforts to incentivise research and development, pilot projects and commercial uptake of carbon-neutral and zero-carbon fuels across the transport sector to support mid-century net zero goals.”
